What I’m listening to

Michael Howell on George Noble’s podcast, 30 March 2026. Follow Howell at @crossbordercap

What it says

The global liquidity cycle has peaked. Howell projects a structural bottom in 2027, driven by a refinancing trap where exponential debt growth outpaces the capacity of financial balance sheets to roll it over cleanly.

Why I’m paying attention

The practical implications are specific: rotate out of concentrated cap-weighted tech exposure toward energy, resources, agriculture, and gold. Monitor the MOVE Index as the early warning system – elevated bond volatility shrinks available credit system-wide before equity markets price it in. The S&P 500 to S&P 500 equal-weight shift addresses concentration risk that most portfolios are carrying without realising it.

This framework sits directly inside how I think about regime positioning.

Filed under: Liquidity, Markets